FRICKIN FINALLY
I CAN GET SOME WORK DONE
Okay okay looking okay so far oh god so nervous
Are we going to be able to take action on climate change? COVID? Stimulus checks? So hopeful
Went canvassing today which was 100% useless but at least I got some exercise vs. lying in bed checking twitter, I guess
ahhhh GA elections ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Okay I might go check out some zoom watch parties now? for a little bit? Then hopefully get some work done
22:16
Ugh 538 last 2 or 3 days trending upward for dems, widening lead from 0.5 to 1.5 pts or something like that. But hearing of split perdue/warnock voters was nervous. And after 2016 trust no polls. And not sure if trump recorded call would distract people from GOTV. And not sure if trump’s base would actually not vote despite all the speculation. But right now looking promising on nytimes needle??? and half an hour ago someone already called the race for warnock
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/05/us/elections/forecast-georgia-senate-runoff.html
22:30 Warnock +1.8, Ossoff +1.0
From twitter, Cohn: A lot of GOP vote trickling in slowly over the last half hour but it’s mostly been a hair better for Democrats than expected. Warnock win probability now over 90%, and do remember this is accounting for the possibility of some unlikely kinds of errors”
–> omg remember at the end of general (well like after we knew there would be runoffs) people were like eh it’s probably republican, and washpost had those shaded red for forever
Lol so much canvassing and I forgot to sign up for the virtual watch parties before hand and now signups are closed and i have no zoom link T__T cannot meet other volunteers oh well i had dreams
Also I was madly trying to figure out what was wrong with my computer (nojs?) turns out wsb-tv coverage is just offline until 11pm (https://www.wsbtv.com/) (https://www.c-span.org/video/?507707-1/wsb-tv-atlanta-georgia-senate-election-night-coverage)
“If the Dems exceed Biden’s margins in blue counties, that seems to support Stacey Abrams’s argument that the key is not persuading swing voters, it’s getting left-leaning voters to the polls.” Shaila Dewan 4m ago
“Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Although a lot of TV chatter right now is focused on the big prizes (DeKalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, etc.), lot of it is overlooking what tipped the Warnock/Loeffler race in favor of a call, in my view: Rockdale Co. #GASEN 10:06 PM · Jan 5, 2021 “
“Greg Bluestein @bluestein 28m
Rockdale is among the Democratic strongholds where the #gasen candidates are improving upon Biden’s November margins. #gapol”
Washpost: “9:35PMDemocrats make gains among Hispanic and Black voters, early exit polls find9:32PMIn Fulton County, more people voted in person Tuesday than on Election Day in November9:11PMWhat historic early voting totals tell us about Georgia runoffs’
Republicans currently have the lead in the tabulated vote, but the outstanding votes are mainly from Democratic strongholds Results are pouring in much faster than they were in November because of the shorter ballot and a new requirement that county election officials process absentee ballots ahead of time. Counting will still stretch into Wednesday for some counties”
Nate Cohn@Nate_Cohn· Ossoff up to a 92% chance to win, according to our estimates. Warnock is on track for victory with a greater than 95 percent chance to win, according to our estimates. The fundamental GOP problem at this point: the Republican vote is basically exhausted. Ossoff favored to win what’s left by 36 points (he needs to win by 26 to win)
23:38: WSBTV back on at 11pm, watched for 10 mins. Was good to catch some actual live speeches from the candidates. I think RBG was more motivating to me than specific campaign promises to be honest.
omg > Decision Desk HQ Projects @ReverendWarnock (D) has won the Georgia Special Senate Runoff Election Race Called: 11:13PM EST 01.05.21 All Results: https://results.decisiondeskhq.com
23:44 WSBTV: gabriel sterling: knew it would be faster (smaller pages). Preparing for tomorrow. More than expected (over 1 million votes today!!!! wow I thought expectation was half a million)
23:46 be kind to those on both sides, there will be another election in 2 years. also something about fulton county, vehicles blocking absentee ballot delivery o__o wat
Now the question is margin… and I actally have no idea vs general I had some idea for some reason. Don’t remember. I expected 6k margin, back when GA was still under, and ended up 12k.
“Burton said DeKalb had more people voting in person today than the number of people who voted in person in November. Even so, he stressed “this is working seamlessly and it’s working the way it’s intended to work.”” word! https://www.ajc.com/politics/live-what-the-ajc-is-watching-during-todays-georgia-runoffs/TJFSEFBCDRCXJA4RWRIHRQKOBU/
00:01 AWW YEA at 11:53PM:
Fact: Whitfield Co., where Trump held his pre-election rally, turned out at just 86.1% of November levels. The state as a whole is on track to exceed 89% of November levels.